Flint Builds 10-Point Lead in Republican Primary

A new survey of likely GOP primary voters in Montana’s 1st Congressional District shows Aaron Flint holding a narrow lead in a race where one-third of voters remain undecided, with significant room for ballot movement ahead of the June 2 primary election.

The poll, conducted May 5-7 by Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. It captures a race that remains highly fluid, with Trump and Gov. Greg Gianforte’s endorsements emerging as potentially decisive factors.

Flint leads Christi Jacobsen by 10 percentage points overall, 30 percent to 20 percent, with Al Olszewski at 13 percent and 33 percent of voters undecided. However, just 34 percent of voters say they are definitely supporting their chosen candidate, meaning the race could shift substantially between now and election day.

The Montana 1st Congressional District encompasses western Montana and has become competitive terrain for both parties. The seat is open, and Republicans are defending a seat they hold in a district that includes some of the state’s most politically diverse areas.

Flint, who has endorsements from both Trump and Gianforte, performs best among Trump-aligned voters and leads across nearly every demographic and geographic subgroup. Among undecided voters, 60 percent view Trump very favorably, suggesting Flint has room to grow by emphasizing his Trump backing.

The poll shows Flint converting his own voters effectively — 74 percent of voters who view him favorably say they will vote for him — and he is winning two-thirds of voters who have a favorable view of both him and Jacobsen. Still, Flint trails slightly in overall name identification and favorability compared to Jacobsen, suggesting he remains less well-known despite his current polling advantage.

Jacobsen holds a geographic advantage in the Butte area where she leads Flint, though Flint wins both the Missoula and Butte-Bozeman designated market areas overall. College-educated voters and soft Republicans lean somewhat more toward Jacobsen, the poll shows.

Voter enthusiasm is high. Sixty-three percent of likely GOP primary voters say they are extremely likely to vote, and 67 percent rate their interest in the election as a “10” on a scale of 1 to 10.

By: Montana Newsroom staff