Opinion | How a Simple Twist of Fate Could End Democrats’ Control of the Senate

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The list of what threatens to end the Democrats’ control of the Senate is familiar: History says the White House’s party usually loses seats in midterms. The president’s low approval ratings in battleground states — even lower than his weak national ratings — portend trouble. Voters now say they prefer Republican control of Congress. And in several states, Republicans have made it harder to vote and are placing partisans in control of the vote-counting.

All of those threaten to put the GOP in charge of the Senate after the 2022 election, ending the Democratic majority after only two years. But because of the fragility of that majority even now — a 50-50 tie, broken only by Kamala Harris’ deciding vote as VP — the end of Democratic control could also come earlier. Much earlier.

For one, the tension

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