MCKENNA: The GOP’s November Dreams Could Come Crashing Down. Here’s Why

Despite what you may have heard, at the moment there is little data that suggests that Republicans are on their way to a historic realignment in the 2022 elections. Given their general inability to say what they might do if given the majority (beyond impeach pretty much everyone), that might not be a bad thing.

Let’s think first about the generic ballot: “Are you planning to vote for the Republican or the Democrat candidate in 2022?” (RELATED: HOFFMAN: States Need To Restore Faith In America’s Elections. Here’s How To Make It Happen)

Right now, the generic ballot responses are all over the map, ranging from plus 4 percentage points for the Democrats (Politico) to plus 8 for the Republicans (Rasmussen). The average — which should be avoided because they are not statistically healthy — is plus 1.9% for the Republicans.

As always, some perspective is in order. In 1994, the Republicans performed 6 points better (51.5% to 45%) than the Democrats with respect to total votes cast in House races. In 2010, they did about the same (51.3% to 44.7%).

The narrowness of the generic ballot advantage is an outlier. All of the opinion research out there indicates that the Democrats, broadly

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