With views of things in America continuing to be bad and now hitting their most negative marks of the year, one might expect an incumbent president to trail in a pre-election poll — as Joe Biden does in this one. But that’s only half the story. The other half is that Donald Trump holds distinct advantages in his own right when voters look forward: More voters think they’d be better off financially if Trump wins in 2024, and more voters think it’s Trump who can keep the U.S. out of a war, if he wins.
Mr. Biden’s Democratic base looks a little more shaky than Trump’s going into next year, too, which isn’t helping him. On those financial measures, Mr. Biden hasn’t fully made the case to his fellow Democrats that he’ll help them financially, or address inequality — certainly not in the way Trump has convinced Republicans.
Looking overseas, Democrats aren’t as sure about Mr. Biden avoiding an overseas war as Republicans are about Trump doing so. And then more directly, Democrats are just less apt to say they’ll vote. Granted, it’s far off, but it does speak to the challenges Mr. Biden has in front of him one year out