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Over the past few days many in the media have begun a Gov. Gavin Newsom victory lap, secure that the new math shows he will survive the recall effort against him.
Not so fast. While Newsom has seen significant gain in the polls, this special election comes with more caveats than a prenup.
Over at the website 538 where data are king, they think Newsom is likely to prevail, but also have this to say, “This is a particularly challenging race to poll accurately because it’s hard to estimate who’s likely to vote.” Adding “In other words, don’t be surprised if there’s a larger-than-usual polling error.
There are a lot of factors here, it’s a strangely timed special election, it’s mostly done with mail in voting, and there could be a natural enthusiasm advantage for the pro recall side, given that they were the ones who initiated the election in the first place. All of these wildcards have the potential to upset polling.
Newsom and his backers have been touting strong mail in numbers from Democrats across the